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☆ Thursday's inflation report could challenge the market outlook for big Fed rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"The market seems to have gotten excited that the Fed's going to have to do more than what the Fed thinks in terms of rate cuts now. watch nowThere is certainly a wide gap between what the Fed has indicated in terms of rate cuts and what the market is expecting. It probably means that right now, the market needs to give back some of the rate cuts that they priced in." Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said this week that while she expects rate hikes could be done, she doesn't see the case yet for cuts. Still, Brusuelas thinks the market is too aggressive in pricing in six rate cuts.

Persons: Frederic J, Brown, Dow Jones, Jack McIntyre, McIntyre, they've, Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Logan, Joseph Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Richard Clarida, … There's, Clarida Organizations: AFP, Getty, Federal, Brandywine Global Investment Management, Traders, Dallas, RSM Locations: Rosemead , California

The S&P 500 (.SPX), the Nasdaq (.IXIC) and the Dow (.DJI) registered their third straight week of gains. For the week, the S&P 500 added 2.2% while the Nasdaq composite rose 2.4% and the Dow climbed 1.9%. Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsEnergy, finishing up 2.1%, was the biggest percentage gainer among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors as oil prices settled up more than 4%. The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 55 new highs and 97 new lows.

Persons: Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Susan Collins, Robert Phipps, Per Stirling's Phipps, Dow, Jack McIntyre, Brendan McDermid, Russell, Rick Wilmer, Sinéad Carew, Shristi, Maju Samuel, Pooja Desai, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Boston Fed, Applied Materials, U.S . Justice, Stirling, Dow Jones, Brandywine Global, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights Energy, Technology, Microsoft, Ross Stores, Old Navy, ChargePoint Holdings, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Austin Texas, Philadelphia, New York City, New York, Bengaluru

ICBC's U.S. unit told market participants on Friday it was hoping to finish the cyber review over the weekend, but the sources said they expected it would spill into next week. The cyberattack sent ripples through the U.S. Treasuries market, where ICBC acts as a broker for hedge funds and other market participants, helping them trade in the securities. The Chinese parent then injected capital into the U.S. unit, allowing it to settle the trades and pay back BNY Mellon, the sources said. They also told market participants about the capital injection but did not disclose the amount or the reason for it, the sources said. SIFMA, the trade group, organized calls for market participants with updates, the sources said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, BNY Mellon, ransomware, ICBC, SIFMA, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Scott Skyrm, Jack McIntyre, Harry Robertson, James Pearson, Naomi Rovinick, Yoruk, Davide Barbuscia, Chris Prentice, Mike Derby, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Paritosh, Zeba, Megan Davies, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith, Richard Chang, Anna Driver Organizations: Asset Management, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, Commercial Bank of China, U.S ., ICBC Financial Services, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, ICBC, Treasury, China, U.S, New York Federal Reserve, Securities, Depository Trust, Clearing Corp, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, ICBC's U.S, U.S, San Francisco, Treasuries, Hong Kong, Shanghai, London, Amsterdam, Carolina, New York

Plenty of bond investors have been burned calling a bottom in a selloff that has taken Treasuries to the cusp of an unprecedented third straight year of losses. One potential near-term pitfall is Friday’s U.S. payrolls data, which could revive expectations of Fed hawkishness if they come in stronger than expected. The rise in Treasury yields has reached far beyond the bond market. The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July high, as rising bond yields offer investment competition to equities while threatening to raise the cost of capital for companies. “The market is running with the idea that the Fed is done hiking, which they may or may not be,” he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell nodded, Bonds, ”, Jack McIntyre, “, ” McIntyre, Stanley Druckenmiller, Duquesne, Bond, Josh Emanuel, Powell, We've, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, ” Wilensky, Noah Wise, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S . Treasury, Brandywine, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wilshire

☆ Fed Chair Powell calls inflation 'too high' and warns that 'we are prepared to raise rates further'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

watch nowFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday called for more vigilance in the fight against inflation, warning that additional interest rate increases could be yet to come. Regardless, Powell indicated it's too soon to declare victory, even with data this summer running largely in the Fed's favor. A need to 'proceed carefully'Powell's remarks follow a series of 11 interest rate hikes that have pushed the Fed's key interest rate to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in more than 22 years. He noted progress on all three, but said nonhousing is the most difficult to gauge as it is the least sensitive to interest rate adjustments. Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined, however, which is encouraging," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, it's, Ryan Detrick, Jack McIntyre, nonhousing Organizations: Kansas City, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow Jones, Carson Group, Federal, Market, Brandywine, Commerce Department, Labor Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, policymaking

☆ Why the Fed paused its rate hikes: It’s tired of playing a giant guessing game
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Following the policy announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that rate hikes typically filter through the economy with “uncertain lags.” In other words, the Fed has been playing an (educated) guessing game, taking action before it understands the results. What’s happening: As much as Federal Reserve officials wish they could, they can’t just wave a wand and lower inflation rates. Here’s how the system works: First, the Fed raises interest rates for overnight loans between financial institutions. Less demand for goods reduces incentives to raise prices and inflation rates will fall. That means they’re able to draw their own conclusions about the trajectory of inflation rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ”, Jack McIntyre, McIntyre, ” Powell, Powell, Yung, Yu Ma, Ma, Biden, Joe Biden, Sam Fossum, you’re, ” Biden, Lael Brainard, Greg Wallace, Sen, John Thune of, Republican Sen, Jerry Moran Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Brandywine Global, BMO Wealth Management, Ticketmaster, “, Economic, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA, Republican Locations: New York, “, John Thune of South Dakota, Kansas

That spread , which has been in negative territory since November, plunged to new lows this week, standing at nearly minus 170 basis points on Thursday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last year that the 18-month U.S. Treasury yield curve was the most reliable warning of an upcoming recession. "Powell's curve ... continues to plunge to fresh century lows," Citi rates strategists William O'Donnell and Edward Acton said in a note on Thursday. Refinitiv data showed the curve was the most inverted since at least 2007. But market participants believe tighter monetary policy is already starting to hurt growth and are betting on rate cuts later this year.

Big investors including Kyle Bass and Bill Ackman argue the government must take quick action to avoid Silicon Valley Bank's collapse sparking more widespread withdrawals in the banking system. That could be determined by how hard the world's central banks continue to push interest rates higher. The market is signaling contagion could factor into the Fed's calculus, possibly prompting it to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Silicon Valley Financial Group was deeply woven into the fabric of the technology industry. Bass and Ackman separately warned that the government would have to move quickly in resolving Silicon Valley Bank to assure depositors.

☆ Analysis: Investors look to emerging markets as planets align for end of dollar bull market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - As the U.S. dollar tumbles from multi-decade highs, some investors are betting emerging market currencies will be big winners from a sustained reversal in the greenback. Signs of a broader turn in dollar sentiment are visible in the buck’s 8% decline against a basket of developed market currencies from its September highs. "The planets are lining up for a dollar bear market," said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US. Emerging market currencies have outperformed their developed market counterparts this year, with MSCI's index of emerging market currencies down 5% year-to-date, while the dollar's G10 peers have lost nearly twice as much. Conversely, tightening by central banks around the world also risks sparking a global recession, a scenario some believe could hurt emerging market currencies and help the dollar.

☆ Fed delivers fourth 75 bp hike, signals scale-back coming
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

This statement clearly suggests input from Vice Chair Brainard and opens the door for the Fed to slow down the pace of future rate hikes. Monetary policy today is not sufficiently tight enough. We’ll know when the Fed is done tightening; they’ll tell us by simply saying that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive. “The last thing we need to see regarding what the Fed will do in the short run is the election. If there’s a sense that fiscal policy will be more cooperative with monetary policy, it will make the Fed’s job easier.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Crowd of dollar bulls raises risk of violent pullback
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some investors worry the dollar trade has become excessively crowded, raising the risk of a sharp unwind if the case for owning the currency changes and investors try to exit their positions all at once. International Monetary Market speculators held a net long U.S. dollar position of $10.23 billion for the week ended Sept. 20. Barring a brief period of peak pandemic-related uncertainty, broad net options positioning data going back to 2014 shows U.S. dollar long positions are the most stretched ever, according to Morgan Stanley. While a hotter-than-expected u.s. inflation report in August dashed those hopes and sent the dollar higher, the dangers stemming from the crowded dollar trade have only grown, investors said. But with the dollar scaling new multi-decade highs, positioning for a pullback can be painful.

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